Three forces reshaping Australia’s international education market

Australia’s international education sector is entering AIEC 2026 with a slower student market, tighter controls on where and how students can study, and a growing push by universities to teach overseas. Together, those changes point to a sector relying less exclusively on students travelling to Australia.

Preliminary government data shows overseas higher education commencements fell 4.9% year over year in the first part of 2026, from 130,415 to 123,968. Total overseas higher education enrolments were broadly flat, dipping 0.5%. The government has kept its National Planning Level at 295,000 new overseas student commencements for 2027, with provider allocations continuing to affect visa-processing priorities.

The figures arrive after years of changes to student visa requirements and as institutions weigh how to recruit while maintaining quality. At the same time, students are comparing Australia with other destinations, and universities are building new ways to reach them beyond the country’s borders.

What tighter rules mean for students

Rules introduced in October 2026 mean most international students can bring dependent family members only in limited circumstances. The government has also tightened the routes available to some temporary visa holders seeking to switch to a student visa while in Australia. Those measures follow higher financial and English-language requirements, the Genuine Student test and increased visa application charges.

Policy certainty matters as students compare study options. IDP’s Emerging Futures research, released in March, found more than three-quarters of international students are “shopping globally” before choosing a destination. The research points to cost, visa certainty, work placements, post-study rights and whether students expect to feel welcome as factors in that comparison.

Why universities are expanding overseas

Australian institutions are also growing their presence in India. The University of Western Australia opened a campus in Mumbai in September and began teaching at a second campus in Chennai in October. Flinders University is preparing a Bengaluru campus, while Deakin University and the University of Wollongong already operate in GIFT City.

These campuses and other transnational education models could let universities serve students who cannot or do not want to fund a full degree in Australia, while creating routes for later study abroad. IDP’s research found that among students considering transnational education, 52% cited employment opportunities, 49% reduced costs and 46% a pathway to future overseas study. But 54% questioned whether it could match the main-campus experience, making clear standards and outcomes a key concern for institutions.

This report draws on information from The PIE News.